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The Circular Economy for Lithium-Ion Batteries: Modelling the UK's Battery Future

The Circular Economy for Lithium-Ion Batteries: Modelling the UK's Battery Future

Recycling and second-life use are central to securing critical battery materials, but their environmental and supply benefits unfold over decades. Minviro combined System Dynamics modelling with prospective LCA to model the UK's lithium-ion battery circular economy from 2020 to 2050.

Recycling and second-life use are central to securing critical battery materials, but their environmental and supply benefits unfold over decades. Minviro combined System Dynamics modelling with prospective LCA to model the UK's lithium-ion battery circular economy from 2020 to 2050.

Recycling and second-life use are central to securing critical battery materials, but their environmental and supply benefits unfold over decades. Minviro combined System Dynamics modelling with prospective LCA to model the UK's lithium-ion battery circular economy from 2020 to 2050.

Sahin Alacacayir

Sahin Alacacayir

Robert Pell

Robert Pell

Jordan Lindsay

Jordan Lindsay

Sahin Alacacayir

Sahin Alacacayir

Robert Pell

Robert Pell

Jordan Lindsay

Jordan Lindsay

IN SUMMARY

What a circular economy can, and cannot, do for battery materials

What a circular economy can, and cannot, do for battery materials

Demand for battery raw materials such as lithium, nickel and cobalt is projected to rise 15 to 20 times between 2020 and 2050, raising hard questions about supply security and end-of-life waste. A circular economy, through reuse, remanufacturing and recycling, is widely seen as part of the answer. To test how much it can deliver and when, Minviro combined System Dynamics modelling with prospective life cycle assessment, using the UK as a case study to map material recovery and battery carbon footprints from 2020 to 2050.

Demand for battery raw materials such as lithium, nickel and cobalt is projected to rise 15 to 20 times between 2020 and 2050, raising hard questions about supply security and end-of-life waste. A circular economy, through reuse, remanufacturing and recycling, is widely seen as part of the answer. To test how much it can deliver and when, Minviro combined System Dynamics modelling with prospective life cycle assessment, using the UK as a case study to map material recovery and battery carbon footprints from 2020 to 2050.

Demand for battery raw materials such as lithium, nickel and cobalt is projected to rise 15 to 20 times between 2020 and 2050, raising hard questions about supply security and end-of-life waste. A circular economy, through reuse, remanufacturing and recycling, is widely seen as part of the answer. To test how much it can deliver and when, Minviro combined System Dynamics modelling with prospective life cycle assessment, using the UK as a case study to map material recovery and battery carbon footprints from 2020 to 2050.

  • Early policy doubles recovery. Adopting the EU battery collection targets in the UK closely tracks the maximum material-recovery scenario, and early investment in collection infrastructure can double material recovered from waste batteries within a decade.

  • Early policy doubles recovery. Adopting the EU battery collection targets in the UK closely tracks the maximum material-recovery scenario, and early investment in collection infrastructure can double material recovered from waste batteries within a decade.

  • Early policy doubles recovery. Adopting the EU battery collection targets in the UK closely tracks the maximum material-recovery scenario, and early investment in collection infrastructure can double material recovered from waste batteries within a decade.

  • Recycling alone will not decarbonise batteries. Grid decarbonisation and recycling credits help, but deep decarbonisation requires addressing the primary raw material supply chains where most of a battery's impact sits.

  • Recycling alone will not decarbonise batteries. Grid decarbonisation and recycling credits help, but deep decarbonisation requires addressing the primary raw material supply chains where most of a battery's impact sits.

  • Recycling alone will not decarbonise batteries. Grid decarbonisation and recycling credits help, but deep decarbonisation requires addressing the primary raw material supply chains where most of a battery's impact sits.

  • Chemistry and efficiency shape circularity. Higher specific-energy batteries perform better environmentally, NCX chemistries carry large recycling credits from nickel and cobalt recovery, and current hydrometallurgical recycling of LFP can produce a higher net impact than the credits it earns.

  • Chemistry and efficiency shape circularity. Higher specific-energy batteries perform better environmentally, NCX chemistries carry large recycling credits from nickel and cobalt recovery, and current hydrometallurgical recycling of LFP can produce a higher net impact than the credits it earns.

  • Chemistry and efficiency shape circularity. Higher specific-energy batteries perform better environmentally, NCX chemistries carry large recycling credits from nickel and cobalt recovery, and current hydrometallurgical recycling of LFP can produce a higher net impact than the credits it earns.

Why circularity matters for battery materials

The shift to electric vehicles has driven demand for lithium-ion batteries toward an expected 4.7 TWh by 2030, and with it demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite. Producing these materials carries real environmental and social cost: in Minviro's NMC811 work, around half the carbon footprint comes from cathode active material production, with nickel sulfate alone able to account for more than half of that. Primary production also carries social risks, such as the cobalt mining concerns in the Democratic Republic of Congo. A circular economy that recovers and reuses materials from spent batteries can reduce reliance on virgin sources, improve supply security and help supply conflict-free materials, which is why regulators are increasingly pushing for it.

The shift to electric vehicles has driven demand for lithium-ion batteries toward an expected 4.7 TWh by 2030, and with it demand for lithium, nickel, cobalt, manganese and graphite. Producing these materials carries real environmental and social cost: in Minviro's NMC811 work, around half the carbon footprint comes from cathode active material production, with nickel sulfate alone able to account for more than half of that. Primary production also carries social risks, such as the cobalt mining concerns in the Democratic Republic of Congo. A circular economy that recovers and reuses materials from spent batteries can reduce reliance on virgin sources, improve supply security and help supply conflict-free materials, which is why regulators are increasingly pushing for it.

How the study was built

Rather than a single snapshot, this study models change over time. Minviro built a System Dynamics model in AnyLogic covering UK EV and battery flows from 2020 to 2050, structured around battery manufacturing and first life, second-life options, and hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical recycling. This was integrated with a prospective LCA using Brightway2 and the IMAGE SSP2-RCP2.6 scenario, so that future grid and supply chain changes are reflected in the impact results. The model distinguishes battery chemistries, including the NMC family, NCA and LFP, and tracks circular interventions across three levels: narrowing, slowing and closing the resource loop. Six scenarios were run, varying collection rates and second-life strategies.

Rather than a single snapshot, this study models change over time. Minviro built a System Dynamics model in AnyLogic covering UK EV and battery flows from 2020 to 2050, structured around battery manufacturing and first life, second-life options, and hydrometallurgical and pyrometallurgical recycling. This was integrated with a prospective LCA using Brightway2 and the IMAGE SSP2-RCP2.6 scenario, so that future grid and supply chain changes are reflected in the impact results. The model distinguishes battery chemistries, including the NMC family, NCA and LFP, and tracks circular interventions across three levels: narrowing, slowing and closing the resource loop. Six scenarios were run, varying collection rates and second-life strategies.

What the results show

On material recovery, adopting the EU collection targets for the UK closely follows the maximum-recovery path, and early policy and infrastructure can double the material recovered within the next decade. Second-life use changes the timing: extending a battery's life through reuse or remanufacturing delays when its materials become available for recycling. Until the early 2030s, manufacturing scrap will be the main recycling feedstock, with retired batteries dominating later. On carbon, specific energy is decisive: lower-energy NMC111 came out at 103 kg CO₂e/kWh in 2020 against 78 kg CO₂e/kWh for higher-energy NMC955. NCX chemistries earn large recycling credits from nickel and cobalt sulfate substitution, while current hydrometallurgical recycling of LFP can produce a higher net impact than the credits it generates, because only limited materials are recovered.

On material recovery, adopting the EU collection targets for the UK closely follows the maximum-recovery path, and early policy and infrastructure can double the material recovered within the next decade. Second-life use changes the timing: extending a battery's life through reuse or remanufacturing delays when its materials become available for recycling. Until the early 2030s, manufacturing scrap will be the main recycling feedstock, with retired batteries dominating later. On carbon, specific energy is decisive: lower-energy NMC111 came out at 103 kg CO₂e/kWh in 2020 against 78 kg CO₂e/kWh for higher-energy NMC955. NCX chemistries earn large recycling credits from nickel and cobalt sulfate substitution, while current hydrometallurgical recycling of LFP can produce a higher net impact than the credits it generates, because only limited materials are recovered.

What it means for policymakers and industry

Three conclusions stand out. First, the EU waste collection targets are well matched to projected EV growth, and acting early on collection infrastructure materially increases recovery. Second, recycling and second life support low-carbon batteries but cannot deliver them alone: deep decarbonisation depends on cleaning up primary material supply chains and process emissions such as heat. Third, design choices matter as much as recycling technology, since more efficient, less material-hungry batteries perform better throughout their life, and less efficient chemistries may be better recycled promptly to feed newer generations. For resource-constrained, demand-heavy economies like the UK, EU, Japan and South Korea, dynamic tools that combine systems thinking with LCA are needed to make these decisions well.

Three conclusions stand out. First, the EU waste collection targets are well matched to projected EV growth, and acting early on collection infrastructure materially increases recovery. Second, recycling and second life support low-carbon batteries but cannot deliver them alone: deep decarbonisation depends on cleaning up primary material supply chains and process emissions such as heat. Third, design choices matter as much as recycling technology, since more efficient, less material-hungry batteries perform better throughout their life, and less efficient chemistries may be better recycled promptly to feed newer generations. For resource-constrained, demand-heavy economies like the UK, EU, Japan and South Korea, dynamic tools that combine systems thinking with LCA are needed to make these decisions well.

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authors

The team behind your insights

Sahin Alacacayir

Sahin Alacacayir

Sustainability scientist

At Minviro, Sahin is responsible for various academic and industrial research projects, including UK and EU grants and commercial collaborations. He integrates raw material sustainability and recycling impact databases with Minviro's technology solutions, and leads projects investigating decarbonisation technology applications including photovoltaics, semiconductors, and electric motors. He completed his MSc in Mining Environmental Management at the Camborne School of Mines, where he studied ecotoxicity and climate change impacts of acid mine drainage from legacy mine wastes. He has significant experience working with gold extraction prior to joining Minviro.

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Robert Pell

Robert Pell

Founder & CEO

Robert Pell is the Founder and CEO of Minviro. His doctoral research at the University of Exeter's Camborne School of Mines focused on responsible sourcing of rare earth elements, pioneering novel Life Cycle Assessment approaches and developing methodology for integrating LCA into mine planning. A published scientist and experienced speaker, Robert holds roles as Chair of the Rare Earth Industry Association (REIA) and the Critical Minerals Association (CMA).

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Jordan Lindsay

Jordan Lindsay

Head of Research & Development

Jordan is Head of Research & Development at Minviro, responsible for all academic and industrial research projects including UK and EU grants and commercial collaborations. He leads projects integrating raw material and battery production LCA databases with Minviro's technology solutions, and investigates decarbonisation technology applications including photovoltaics, hydrogen, and electric motors. Jordan completed his PhD in Geology at the University of Exeter, Camborne School of Mines, where he studied platinum-group metal prospectivity using machine learning approaches.

Connect

Sahin Alacacayir

Sahin Alacacayir

Sustainability scientist

At Minviro, Sahin is responsible for various academic and industrial research projects, including UK and EU grants and commercial collaborations. He integrates raw material sustainability and recycling impact databases with Minviro's technology solutions, and leads projects investigating decarbonisation technology applications including photovoltaics, semiconductors, and electric motors. He completed his MSc in Mining Environmental Management at the Camborne School of Mines, where he studied ecotoxicity and climate change impacts of acid mine drainage from legacy mine wastes. He has significant experience working with gold extraction prior to joining Minviro.

Connect

Robert Pell

Robert Pell

Founder & CEO

Robert Pell is the Founder and CEO of Minviro. His doctoral research at the University of Exeter's Camborne School of Mines focused on responsible sourcing of rare earth elements, pioneering novel Life Cycle Assessment approaches and developing methodology for integrating LCA into mine planning. A published scientist and experienced speaker, Robert holds roles as Chair of the Rare Earth Industry Association (REIA) and the Critical Minerals Association (CMA).

Connect

Jordan Lindsay

Jordan Lindsay

Head of Research & Development

Jordan is Head of Research & Development at Minviro, responsible for all academic and industrial research projects including UK and EU grants and commercial collaborations. He leads projects integrating raw material and battery production LCA databases with Minviro's technology solutions, and investigates decarbonisation technology applications including photovoltaics, hydrogen, and electric motors. Jordan completed his PhD in Geology at the University of Exeter, Camborne School of Mines, where he studied platinum-group metal prospectivity using machine learning approaches.

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